文字概率与数字概率在表征不确定性上 的共性与特性研究

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	文字概率与数字概率在表征不确定性上的共性与特性研究
其他题名	Identifying shared and unique function of verbal probability and numerical probability in representing uncertainty
	杜雪蕾
	2013-05
摘要	文字概率和数字概率是表征不确定性信息经常用到的两种方式，在风险决策和风险沟通中起到重要作用。作为表达同一概念的两种不同方式，二者在加工与感知上的共性与特性是本研究关注的重点。研究一使用事件相关电位技术记录被试在利用文字概率和数字概率进行风险决策时的脑电数据，结果发现，在概率加工前期刺激辨识阶段，文字概率与数字概率只表现出形式上的加工差异，文字概率的N1比数字概率更大；在概率加工后期，表现出概率高低的加工差异，低概率的N2比高概率更大、P3比高概率更小，不存在概率高低与概率形式的交互作用。这表明文字概率和数字概率在风险水平上的加工是存在共性的，N2、P3反映了抽象概率概念的加工。虽然文字概率和数字概率在风险决策加工中表现出一致性，但是研究二、三、四的结果表明二者在风险沟通中适应于不同的不确定性类型。研究二采用“迫选”的反应方式，发现文字概率更适合表达变化的不确定性，数字概率更适合表达不变的不确定性，无论决策情境相对精确（易于构建数字概率），抑或是相对模糊（难于构建数字概率）。当实验采用“自由表达”的反应方式时(研究三)，这种联系仍然存在，除了当请被试在模糊情境中自由表达可能性时。另外，文字概率与变化的不确定性的联系即使在内隐范式（研究四）中也显著存在。这表明文字概率和数字概率在风险沟通中的特性是存在差异的，文字概率具有“变化特性”，在实际应用中最好针对不同的不确定类型使用相对应的概率表达方式。文字概率和数字概率的共性研究从理论上明确了“概率”这一心理概念的加工机制，特性研究则从实际应用的角度为“有效运用合适的概率表达方式”提供了指导。
其他摘要	Verbal probability and numerical probability are commonly used to represent uncertainty information, which play an important role in decision making under risk and risk communication. Though verbal and numerical probabilities are different in their forms, they represent the same concept. The similarity and difference in processing and perception between verbal and numerical probability are the focus of this research. Study 1, using event-related potentials, compared the processing of verbal probability and numerical probability in decision making under risk. In the prior period of probability processing, only the probability form (verbal or numerical) had an effect on the amplitude of N1, with larger N1 in verbal condition than in numerical condition. In the later period, the probability level (low/medium/high) had an effect on the amplitude of N2 and parietal P3, with larger N2 and smaller P3 in low condition than in high condition. There is no significant interaction between probability form and probability level in the later period, which suggested that the processing of the verbal probability level was consistent with that of the numerical probability level, and that N2 and parietal P3 reflect the processing of the general concept of probability. Although verbal and numerical probability performed similarly in the decision making process under risk, they were compatible with different type of uncertainty in risk communication, which was tested in Studies 2-4. In Study2, using a forced-choice response mode, we found that verbal probability was more suitable to expressing changeable uncertainty, while numerical probability was more suitable to expressing changeless uncertainty no matter what scenarios for decision making were used (exact or vague). When the response mode was changed to free-response (Study 3), the associations remained true unless the participants were requested to write their own probability prediction for vague uncertainty. Even in an implicit task (Study 4), the ―verbal-changeable‖ combination was much more compatible than other combinations. These results show that verbal probability and numerical probability play different roles in risk communication. It is better to use proper probability expressions when people meet with different uncertainty in daily life. In theoretical level, the research on similarity of verbal and numerical probability indicated the general processing mechanism of probability. In applied level, the research on difference between verbal and numerical probability offered valuable guidance on how to communicate risk information.
学科领域	应用心理学
关键词	文字概率数字概率概率加工不确定类型
学位类型	硕士
语种	中文
学位专业	心理学
学位授予单位	中国科学院研究生院
学位授予地点	北京
文献类型	学位论文
条目标识符	http://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/19502
专题	社会与工程心理学研究室
作者单位	中国科学院心理研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	杜雪蕾. 文字概率与数字概率在表征不确定性上的共性与特性研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院,2013.

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