社会与工程心理学研究室知识库

金融领域的研究显示股票、基金等投资中存在“羊群行为”，即从众现象，但少有研究深入探讨促使个体在投资决策时从众背后的社会心理机制。本研究通过心理学的方法，控制可能影响投资行为的无关变量探讨从众对投资决策的影响，尤其关注居住流动性以及童年社会经济地位在从众与投资决策关系中的作用。

研究采用情境问卷方式，通过网络在线调查，进行了三个研究:

研究一初步探讨从众对投资决策的影响，以及居住流动性在从众对投资决策影响中的作用。在问卷中设置股票、基金和银行理财产品三类投资情境，改变情境描述中买入投资产品的投资者的数量，操作社会证明。要求被试在阅读情境后回答问题，以此测量投资决策的从众行为。还要求被试报告不同年龄阶段的居住流动性。结果证实了从众投资现象的存在，以及居住流动性对从众投资的调节作用:当投资不确定性较高时，人们更容易在投资决策时出现从众的现象，投资者更倾向于买入大多数人都买入的投资产品，因为他人的做法为对自己决策没把握的投资者提供了行为依据;当投资不确定性较高时，童年期居住流动性高的人更容易在投资决策时出现从众的现象，童年期常搬迁的人，更倾向于买入大多数人都买入的投资产品。因为，居住流动容易使人感到不确定。若常搬迁的人从事不确定性较高的投资活动，他们的不确定感会更突出，他们更可能寻求社会证明，降低不确定感，在行为上表现为投资决策时从众。

研究二主要探讨童年社会经济地位在居住流动性与从众投资关系中的作用。问卷设置股票和银行理财产品两类投资情境，采用与研究一相同的方法操作社会证明、测量居住流动性和投资行为。在问卷中增加量表，要求被试报告小时候对自身社会经济地位的感知，以此测量童年社会经济地位。结果证实了童年社会经济地位对居住流动性于从众投资影响的调节作用:当投资不确定性较高时，童年社会经济地位会调节童年期居住流动性与投资决策时从众的现象间的关系。童年期社会经济地位低的人，若童年期常搬迁，更倾向于买入大多数人都买入的投资产品。低童年社会经济地位的个体，早年资源拥有量不足，如果他们频繁搬迁，降级不确定感的愿望会非常强烈，在参与不确定性较高的投资活动时，容易因而做出从众行为。

研究三聚焦于不确定性较高的股票投资，进一步探讨，童年社会经济地位在居住流动性与从众投资关系中的作用。问卷设置短期和长期两类股票情境，其余变量的操作和测量与研究二相同。结果发现，对两种类型的股票，童年社会经济地位均会对居住流动性和其从众投资的关系起到调节作用。

本研究的发现，从理论上，揭示了从众、居住流动性和童年社会经济地位对投资行为的影响及其背后的心理机制，丰富了投资行为的心理因素、社会心理因素的研究成果。从实践上，本研究可以加深个体投资者对从众投资的理解，促进投资行为的理性化。同时，本研究为政府以及企业从人口流动和社会经济地位的角度预测和管理金融市场、防控金融风险提供了心理学的依据。

Previous research in financial field showed the existence of "herding behavior". However, few have thoroughly explored the psychological mechanism underlying investment conformity, so this research focuses on that. Using psychological methods, the effects of childhood residential mobility as well as childhood socioeconomic status (SES) on investment conformity is discussed.

Three studies are conducted, and the results support the hypotheses. Study 1 mainly explores the effect of residential mobility on conformity investment. Participants are randomly assigned to either with or without social proof condition and asked to read a series of investment scenarios which include three types, namely stock, fund and financial product, and then answer the questions which reflect conformity investment. Residential mobility is measured through scale by self-reported. The results show that, when uncertainty of investment is salient, firstly, people tend to conform to majority when making investment decisions. Secondly, childhood residential mobility is a moderator of the effect of social proof on conformity investment, that is, people who moved frequently during childhood are more fikely to conform when making investment decisions. Moves bring unfamiliar, highly uncertain natural and social environment, which makes it difficult for people to predict the surrounding environment and then triggers the sense of uncertainty. If they engage in investment with high uncertainty, uncertain feeling will be more salient, which motivate them to seek social proof and perform conformity investment behavior.

Study 2 mainly explores the influence of childhood SES on the relationship between childhood residential mobility and investment conformity. SES scale is added into questionnaire in order to asses participants' childhood SES. Participants read two types of investment scenarios, stock and financial product, and then answer corresponding questions that measure investment conformity, residential mobility and childhood SES, etc. The result show that childhood SES is a moderator of the effect of childhood residential mobility on investment conformity, that is, the lower the childhood SES, those who move more frequently during childhood are more likely to conform to majority when making an investment decision. Because individuals with low childhood SES have few resources, so it is difficult for them to cope with accidents or threats. Adaptive behavior that could deal with uncertain feeling, such as conformity, is cultivated.

In study 3, two types of stock investment scenarios are presented, and the effect of childhood SES is tested and verified again. In both short-term and long-term type of stock investment, those who are at low childhood SES as well as move more frequently during childhood are more likely to make conformity investment decisions.

From the perspective of psychology, these conclusions enrich existing theological foundation and empirical basis towards investment behavior. It reveals the psychological mechanism behind conformity investment, which becomes a kind of reference for individual o make investment decisions, also for enterprise or government to make policy decisions.