中国科学院心理研究所机构知识库

目的:考察中国被试的事后聪明式偏差程度及其与惊奇程度和过度自信之间的关系。方法:采用假想设计的范式,选取138人进行年鉴问题的问卷调查,其中92人参与一周后的过度自信的问卷评估,另有74人参与惊奇程度的问卷评估。结果:①中国被试在年鉴问题上普遍存在事后聪明式偏差。②被试对惊奇程度高的年鉴问题的事后聪明式偏差程度要小于对惊奇程度低的年鉴问题的事后聪明式偏差程度,且与前人的研究结果相比,中国被试对问卷中年鉴问题的反馈结果表现出较小的惊奇感。③被试的事后聪明式偏差程度与其过度自信水平存在显著的负相关。结论:被试的事后聪明式偏差程度与其过度自信水平以及对年鉴问题的惊奇程度均存在显著的相关关系。

Objective： To explore the degree of hindsight bias among Chinese participants, and its relationship with surprise level and overconfidence level, respectively. Methods： The study adopted the paradigm of hypothetical design, 138 participants took part in Almanac Questionnaire, among which 92 participants were assessed by Overconfidence Questionnaire one week later, and there were another 74 participants assessed by Surprise Rating Questionnaire. Results： （1）Chinese participants were found widely vulnerable to hindsight bias.（2）Participants showed higher hindsight bias when they faced almanac questions of lower surprise than those of higher surprise, and Chinese participants rated relatively low in face of the feedbacks of almanac questions in Surprise Rating Questionnaire. （3）Participants＇ hindsight biases were significantly negative correlated with their overconfidence. Conclusion： There were significant relationship between participants＂ hindsight bias and their overconfidence and surprise at almanac questions.

Objective: To explore the degree of hindsight bias among Chinese participants, and its relationship with surprise level and overconfidence level, respectively. Methods: The study adopted the paradigm of hypothetical design, 138 participants took part in Almanac Questionnaire, among which 92 participants were assessed by Overconfidence Questionnaire one week later, and there were another 74 participants assessed by Surprise Rating Questionnaire. Results: ①Chinese participants were found widely vulnerable to hindsight bias. ②Participants showed higher hindsight bias when they faced almanac questions of lower surprise than those of higher surprise, and Chinese participants rated relatively low in face of the feedbacks of almanac questions in Surprise Rating Questionnaire. ③ Participants’hindsight biases were significantly negative correlated with their overconfidence. Conclusion: There were significant relationship between participants’ hindsight bias and their overconfidence and surprise at almanac questions.