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中国高铁调度员应急任务分析及地震处置关键决策研究
其他题名Task Analysis of Chinese High-Speed Railway Dispatchers' Work During Emergency and Research on Critical Decision- Making in Earthquake Response
王子玥
导师孙向红 ; 张警吁
2022-06
摘要中国高速铁路发展迅速,运营里程和流量不断提升,运输复杂度也随之提高。在此情况下,保证高铁安全高效运行,对高铁调度这一核心作业提出了更高的要求。通过工程心理学研究,考察调度员的认知决策过程能够为进一步保障高铁的安全高效运行提供支撑。 我国高速铁路调度系统自动化程度非常高,在常规情况下,调度员主要以监控作业为主,工作负荷较低;但在应急事件发生后,自动化系统无法自主应对,调度员需要在工作负荷突然提升的情况下对复杂情况进行准确判断,并做出导向安全的决策。为此,有必要探明调度员需要应对哪些重要应急场景,其中有哪些关键决策阶段值得关注,影响这些关键决策的有关因素有哪些,以及如何提升调度员的关键决策。 为了回答上述问题,我们开展了四个研究:研究一采用任务分析方法系统分析了高铁调度中的若干重要应急调度场景,并发现地震处置场景中迅急响应是非常重要的决策阶段。进一步分析表明该阶段调度员的决策可以初步归纳为:首先对地震中心和影响范围进行判断,随后根据列车的优先级顺序进行扣停,在覆盖安全边界时达到结束条件。我们定性分析了影响这一过程的有关因素。研究二采用历史记录数据分析的方法,定量分析了影响调度员扣停结束条件的影响因素。我们发现,地震震级越高,调度员能力越强,被扣停列车的数量越多。这说明调度员在扣停时所遵循的结束条件,既与正式的操作规定有关,也与主观设定的安全边界有关。研究三通过实验方法,定量分析了扣停顺序的影响因素。我们发现,调度员的扣停优先级判断基本遵循先近后远、先进后出的原则,但对于地震中心和范围的判断不清可能是阻碍调度员做出合理判断的干扰因素。研究四在研究三的基础上,进一步探索了提升扣停优先级判断的干预方法。我们发现,提供关于地震中心和范围的可视化图标显示,能够显著提升调度员扣停优先级判断的准确性。 本研究系统分析了若干重要的应急处置场景,并针对地震应急处置的关键决策认知过程进行深入研究,在定性分析的基础上,定量分析了影响列车扣停结束条件和扣停顺序的因素,并研究了提升扣停优先级判断的干预方式。本研究为提升我国高铁调度中对地震的应急处置过程提供了人因学参考,在事故安全分析和预防,人员选拔与培训和交互界面设计等方面都提供了有益的建议。
其他摘要In the rapid development of Chinese high-speed railway, the transportation complexity is increasing along with the increase of mileage and traffic. It puts higher requirements upon railway dispatchers, who are in the key positions to ensure rail safety and efficiency. Through the research of engineering psychology, investigating the cognitive processes of dispatchers in decision-making can provide support for further improving the operation of current system. The Chinese high-speed railway dispatching system has a very high level of automation. In most circumstances, dispatchers only need to focus on monitoring operation with relatively medium level of workload. However, when an emergency occurs under which the automation system may not be able to handle independently, the dispatchers need to judge the complex situation and make safety-oriented decisions by their own. In these situations, their workload may increase abruptly and their decision may get impacted. Given the importance of the consequences, it is necessary to find out the important emergency scenarios, the critical decision-making, the factors that can affect their decisions, and the method to improve their decision- making process. In order to answer these questions, we conducted four studies in the thesis. Study 1 systematically analyzed several important emergency scenarios by using task analysis method. We found earthquake disposal scenario is very important and the rapid response period is a critical decision-making stage in the process to handle earthquake. Further analysis showed that the dispatchers would first judge the epicenter and the range of the earthquake, and then stop trains according to their priority order until all trains in the dangerous zone are stopped. In the following studies, we quantitatively analyzed the relevant factors affecting this process. In Study 2, we analyzed the historical data to understand the factors that may influence the number of trains stopped by the dispatchers in quantitative manner. We found that higher earthquake magnitude and higher dispatcher's ability are linked with more trains being stopped. This suggests that such decisions are influenced by the formal operation regulations as well as the subjective safety margin of the dispatchers. Study 3 investigated how the priority to stop trains are influenced through experiment. We found that the dispatcher's priority judgment mainly follows a combination of center - first rule and a driving-in first rule. However, difficulties in locating the epicenter and the range of the earthquake may hinder the judgment. On the basis of study 3, study 4 further explored an intervention method to improve the judgment of train-stopping priority. We found that providing a simple visual display to show the epicenter and the range could significantly improve the accuracy of dispatcher's stopping priority judgment. This study systematically analyzed several important emergency disposal scenarios, and conducted a systematic study on the critical decision-making cognitive process of earthquake emergency. We further quantitatively analyzed the factors that can affect the scope and the priority in train-stopping judgement, and explored an intervention method to improve the priority judgment. The study provides a human factor approach for improving the seismic emergency response process in Chinese high-speed railway dispatching and provides useful suggestions in accident safety analysis and prevention, personnel selection, training and the interactive interface design.
关键词高铁调度员 应急任务分析 地震处置 关键决策 决策干预
学位类型硕士
语种中文
学位名称理学硕士
学位专业应用心理
学位授予单位中国科学院大学
学位授予地点中国科学院心理研究所
文献类型学位论文
条目标识符http://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/43199
专题社会与工程心理学研究室
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
王子玥. 中国高铁调度员应急任务分析及地震处置关键决策研究[D]. 中国科学院心理研究所. 中国科学院大学,2022.
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