认知与发展心理学研究室知识库

COVID-19疫情给人们的生命、健康造成了重大的伤害，导致全球人口寿命缩减了2050万年，然而在环境方面却出现了明显改善。这些促使人们反思人与自然的关系，以及实施低碳生活方式的必要性。绿色出行的代表产品新能源汽车，多使用电能等绿色能源，可以有效减少石油等能源的消耗和碳排放。我国新能源汽车近年来呈现爆发式增长态势，但随着补贴退坡和市场竞争加剧，新能源车企对消费者的了解和影响程度，事关企业的销售成绩和生存发展。

当今最大的消费环境是从去年12月7日开始的我国疫情防控常态化，即人们在经历流行病长期管理后生活方方面面的改变，包括消费心理。为了探索流行病长期管理后主要的消费心理改变有哪些，以及是否会影响新能源车的消费意愿，从而影响购买行为，本研究进行了以下三个子研究:

研究一从宏观层面通过百度指数大数据中“未来”、“经济”、“专家”、“风险”和“新能源车”这几个关键词及百度地图复苏指数的增长态势，发现流行病长期管理与爆发期间相比，这些关键词都呈现上升趋势。但是并不能验证“未来”、“专家”、“经济”、“风险”和“新能源车”这些关键词，分别与心理变量“长远利益”、“专家信任”、“经济预期”、“风险接受”和“新能源车购买意愿”之间的关系。

为了进一步探索长远利益、专家信任、经济预期、风险接受这些确系流行病长期管理后的心理变化，并且这些心理变化与新能源车购买意愿之间的关系，进行了消费者个体层面的1169个有效大样本实证研究二。结果发现专家信任、长远利益、风险接受和经济预期与新能源车购买意愿之间呈现显著正相关的关系。

研究二的结果并不意味着有了消费意愿就会有购车计划，购车计划是更实际的行为层面的变量。在流行病长期管理后这样的大背景下，出行便利性可能会使得广大消费者的购车计划提前，同时也会存在一些购车计划没有提前的消费者，因此有没有提前购车计划是一个重要的变量。因为区分有提前购车计划和无提前购车计划这两类群体，可以了解到底是哪些心理变化影响了有提前购车计划消费者的购买意愿和没有提前购车计划消费者的购买意愿。新能源车企可以根据两组消费者各自的消费意愿心理影响因素，设计出更加精准的营销方案，达成更加有效的营销效果。研究三进一步从个体层面进行实证研究，采用线上调研的方式，以全国范围内随机挑选的18周岁以上的消费者为调研对象，共收集到297个有效问卷，对调研数据分析后发现:(1)有提前购车计划的人群，长远利益和专家信任与新能源车购买意愿的关系显著，与产品本身风险评估的关系不显著;(2)没有提前购车计划的消费者，流行病长期管理后的心理变化与新能源车消费意愿的关系不显著，但车辆本身的风险感知与新能源车消费意愿的关系显著。

通过三个研究，得出以下结论:

(1)流行病长期管理与爆发封控期相比，消费群体心理呈现的变化:专家信任提升、更倾向于长远利益、风险接受提升和经济预期向好;

(2)有提前购车计划者的消费意愿，主要受长远利益和专家信任的影响;

(3)没有提前购车计划者的消费意愿，主要受车辆本身风险感知的影响。

本研究的结果对于补强流行病长期管理后相关领域的研究，政府制订新能源车政策、车企进行消费者画像和营销宣传、消费者绿色生活方式实践等方面，均具有重要的理论意义和现实价值。

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant harm to people's lives and health, reducing the global population's life expectancy by 20.5 million years, but there has been a marked improvement in the environment. These have prompted a rethinking of the relationship between humans and nature and the need to implement a low-carbon lifestyle. New energy vehicles, the representative products of green travel, use more green energy such as electric energy, which can effectively reduce the consumption of energy such as oil and carbon emissions. China's new energy vehicles have shown explosive growth in recent years, but with the decline of subsidies and the intensification of market competition, the understanding and influence of new energy vehicle companies on consumers is related to the sales performance and survival and development of enterprises.

Today's largest consumption environment is the normalization of epidemic prevention and control in China since December 7 last year, that is, changes in all aspects of people's lives after experiencing long-term management of the epidemic, including consumer psychology. In order to explore the main changes in consumer psychology after long-term management of the epidemic, and whether they will affect the consumption willingness of new energy vehicles, thereby affecting purchasing behavior, the following three sub-studies were carried out:

Study 1:From the macro level, through the keywords "future", "economy", "experts", "risk" and "new energy vehicle" in Baidu index big data and the growth trend of Baidu Map Recovery Index, it is found that the long-term management of epidemics shows an upward trend compared with the outbreak period. However, it is not possible to verify the relationship between the keywords "future", "experts", "economy", "risk", and "new energy vehicle" and psychological variables "long-term benefit", "expert trust", "economic expectations", "risk acceptance", and "purchase intention of new energy vehicles", respectively.

In order to further explore the psychological changes after long-term management of the epidemic, such as long-term benefits, expert trust, economic expectations, and risk acceptance, and the relationship between these psychological changes and the purchase intention of new energy vehicles, 1169 effective large-sample empirical studies were conducted at the individual consumer level. The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between expert trust, long-term benefits, risk acceptance, and economic expectations and NEV purchase intentions.

The results of study 2 do not mean that there is a willingness to spend there will be a car purchase plan, which is a more practical behavioral variable. In the context of long-term management of the epidemic, travel convenience may make the majority of consumers' car purchase plans advance, and there will also be some consumers who do not have car purchase plans in advance, so whether there is an advance car purchase plan is an important variable. Because of the distinction between two groups, with and without advance car purchase plans, we can understand which psychological changes affect the purchase intention of consumers with advance car purchase plans and those without advance car purchase plans. New energy vehicle companies can design more accurate marketing plans according to the psychological factors of the two groups of consumers' consumption willingness to achieve more effective marketing effects. Study 3 further conducted empirical research from the individual level, using online research methods, taking randomly selected consumers over 18 years old nationwide as research objects, a total of 297 valid questionnaires were collected, and after analyzing the survey data, it was found that: (1) the long-term interests and expert trust ofpeople with early car purchase plans have a significant relationship with the willingness to purchase new energy vehicles, and the relationship with the risk assessment of the product itself is not significant; (2) For consumers who do not have a car purchase plan in advance, the relationship between psychological changes after long-term management of the epidemic and the consumption intention of new energy vehicles is not significant, but the relationship between the risk perception of the vehicle itself and the consumption intention of new energy vehicles is significant.

Through three studies, the following conclusions were drawn:

(1) Compared with the outbreak and lockdown period, the long-term management of epidemics shows changes in the psychology of consumer groups: expert trust is improved, more inclined to long-term interests, risk acceptance is improved, and economic expectations are better;

(2) The willingness of those who have advance car purchase plans is mainly affected by long-term interests and expert trust;

(3) The willingness of those who do not purchase a car in advance is mainly affected by the risk perception of the vehicle itself.

The results of this study have important theoretical significance and practical value for strengthening the research in related fields after long-term epidemic management, such as the government's formulation of new energy vehicle policies, car companies' consumer profiling and marketing publicity, and consumers' green lifestyle practices.