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风险偏好对商业保险购买行为的影响
其他题名The Effect of Risk Preference on Commercial Insurance Purchase Behavior
唐明君
导师饶俪琳
2022-06
摘要作为现代金融体系的重要组成部分,保险在市场经济中扮演重要的风险管理角色。我国保险业起步较晚,与发达国家相比,无论是在保险深度还是在保险密度上仍然有很大的上升空间。商业保险购买行为是个体重要的经济行为,与个体风险承受能力、风险偏好等因素息息相关。国内关于风险偏好与商业保险购买行为关系的研究相对较少,并且现有研究对于风险偏好与商业保险购买行为之间的关系存在争议。通过文献综述,我们发现导致风险偏好对商业保险购买行为的影响结果不一致的可能原因是:风险偏好的测量方式不同,一部分研究使用自我报告或行为实验测量出的个体风险偏好,发现风险偏好和商业保险购买行为呈正相关,另一部分研究基于理论建模估计个体风险偏好,发现风险偏好和商业保险购买意愿呈负相关。在本研究中,我们对商业保险购买意向和实际购买行为分别作了测量,试图探究个体风险偏好、需求程度与购买行为之间的关系。对风险偏好也采用了主观和客观两种测量方式,并尝试探究家庭总收入是否存在调节作用。 本文进行了两项实证研究,研究一基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS2017)的公开大数据(N= 127012),以风险偏好为自变量,以性别、年龄、教育水平、家庭总收入为控制变量,以是否购买商业保险为因变量进行逻辑回归分析。结果表明风险偏好正向预测商业保险购买行为,风险寻求的个体更可能购买商业保险。 研究二基于问卷调查进一步探讨风险偏好与商业人身保险购买行为之间的关系(N = 373 )。以风险偏好为自变量,以对保险购买的意愿程度和对保险购买的需求程度为中介变量,以不确定性容忍度、性别、年龄、教育水平、家庭可支配年收入为控制变量,以是否购买商业人身保险和年缴纳保费为因变量分别进行中介分析。结果发现风险偏好正向预测是否购买商业保险,对年缴纳保费无显著预测作用;对保险购买的需求程度在风险偏好与商业保险购买行为之间起中介作用,越风险偏好的个体,其对保险购买的需求程度越强,从而其更可能购买商业人身保险。对保险购买的意愿程度在风险偏好与商业保险购买行为之间中介作用不显著。对保险购买的需求程度和意愿程度在风险偏好与年缴纳保费之间中介作用不显著。此外,本研究还发现家庭可支配年收入在风险偏好与商业保险购买行为之间的关系中起到调节作用,对低收入人群来说,风险偏好可显著预测其商业保险购买行为,但对高收入人群则没有显著的作用。 研究二与研究一的研究结果基本一致,即风险偏好可正向预测商业保险购买行为,同时发现保险购买的需求程度在风险偏好和商业保险购买行为之间的中介作用。本文的主要贡献是为行为保险学领域中风险偏好对商业保险影响研究丰富了方法论,为行为保险学领域提供了又一例实证研究案例。
其他摘要As an important part of modern financial system, insurance plays an important role in risk management in market economy. Compared with the developed countries, our insurance industry started late, and there is still a great rise in insurance depth and density. Commercial insurance purchase behavior is an important individual economic behavior, closely related to individual risk tolerance, risk preference and other factors. However, there is a lot of controversy in existing research on the relationship between risk preference and commercial insurance purchase behavior. Through literature review, we found that a possible reason for conflicting relationship between risk preference and commercial insurance purchase behavior is that the measurement methods of risk preference are different. Some studies use individual risk preference measured by self-report or behavioral experiment, which find that risk preference positively predicts commercial insurance purchase behavior; the other studies estimate individual risk preference based on theoretical modeling, which find that risk preference negatively predicts commercial insurance purchase intentions. In this study, we distinguished between purchase intentions and purchase behavior of commercial insurance, and explored how risk preference, purchase demand affect purchase behavior of commercial insurance. The subjective and objective measures of risk preference were also adopted, and explored how total family income moderating effects. This study consists of two empirical studies. Study 1 we use the published data of China Household Finance Survey (CHFS2017) (N--127012). The logistic regression analysis is conducted with risk preference as the independent variable, gender, age, education level and total family income as the control variables, and purchase behavior of commercial insurance as the dependent variable. The results of study 1 indicated that risk preference positively predicted purchase behavior of commercial insurance and risk-seeking individuals were more likely to buy commercial insurance. Study 2 further explored how risk preference affects purchase behavior of commercial insurance based on questionnaire survey (N--373). Risk preference was taken as the independent variable, purchase intentions and purchase demand as the intermediary variable, uncertainty tolerance, gender, age, education level, family disposable annual income as the control variable, purchase behavior of commercial insurance and annual premium as the dependent variable. The results of study 2 indicated that risk preference positively predicted purchase behavior of commercial insurance and had no significant prediction of annual premium. Purchase demand plays an intermediary role between risk preference and commercial insurance purchase behavior. Risk preference individuals exhibited higher level of purchase demand, who are more likely to buy commercial life insurance. Purchase intentions has no significant mediating effect between risk preference and commercial insurance purchase behavior. Purchase intentions and purchase demand has no significant mediating effect between risk preference and annual premium. In addition, study 2 found that household disposable annual income moderating effects between risk preference and commercial insurance purchase behavior. For low-income individuals, risk preference can significantly predict commercial insurance purchase behavior, but has no significant effect on high-income individuals. The results of study 2 and study 1 were basically the same, that is, risk preference can positively predict commercial insurance purchase behavior, and purchase demand played an intermediary role between risk preference and commercial insurance purchase behavior. The main contribution of this study is to enrich the methodology for how risk preference affect purchase behavior of commercial insurance and provide another empirical case in the field of behavioral insurance.
关键词商业保险购买行为 计划行为理论 风险偏好 风险选择
学位类型继续教育硕士
语种中文
学位名称理学硕士
学位专业应用心理学
学位授予单位中国科学院大学
学位授予地点中国科学院心理研究所
文献类型学位论文
条目标识符http://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/45189
专题社会与工程心理学研究室
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
唐明君. 风险偏好对商业保险购买行为的影响[D]. 中国科学院心理研究所. 中国科学院大学,2022.
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